Legal Literacy - Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Bahlil Lahadalia plans to cut the production quota for several strategic mining commodities such as coal and nickel. The purpose of this planning is to maintain price stability in the global market while improving the governance of the national mining sector. Bahlil assesses that the production carried out so far has been excessive and commodity prices have recently fallen. Reducing the mining production quota is seen as a strategic step to suppress oversupply so that commodity prices are maintained in the global market. Through production cuts, the government hopes to create a new balance that is more economically beneficial.
 
The surge in nickel mining production targets and realization in recent years cannot be separated from the government's downstreaming policy. This has happened since nickel ore was completely banned from being exported in 2020 and is required to be processed domestically. Nickel ore mining activities, as raw materials, have also increased significantly. Executive Director of the Center for Energy and Mining Law Studies Bisman Bakhtiar, Friday (12/26/2025), said that cutting nickel mine production is the right step in order to maintain the supply and demand for nickel. Until now, there has been no signal that nickel prices will strengthen again. Bahlil has not set out the details of the reduction in Indonesian mine production in the RKAB, including for nickel.
 
However, the plan to cut the mining production quota is inseparable from fundamental problems, especially regarding the effectiveness of the policy in responding to global market dynamics. The decline in coal and nickel prices is not solely due to high domestic production, but also due to weakening global demand, economic slowdown in industrial countries, and changes in the structure of energy and raw material consumption. In this context, reducing production at the national level risks not having a significant impact on price recovery, while the economic impact is directly felt domestically.
 
The main problem with the plan to cut the mining production quota lies in the fact that the decline in commodity prices is not entirely due to high national production. Data shows that Indonesia's coal production in 2024 reached around 836 million tons, far exceeding the initial target, and although projected to decline, the volume in 2025 is still in the range of 760–790 million tons. On the other hand, in the first half of 2025 alone, coal production has reached 357.6 million tons, with around 238 million tons exported.However, this high volume is not directly proportional to the strengthening of prices, because global demand is actually weakening due to the economic slowdown and energy transition in major consumer countries. This condition shows that supply correction domestically is not necessarily effective in raising prices if the main pressure comes from the global demand side.